Oil crisis

Parameters

Petrol price multiplier

3

Multiplier applied to the price of gasoline (citizen car fuel) and diesel (city-owned bus fleet) for the duration of an oil_crisis incident. ~3× matches the trough-to-peak swing of US retail gasoline prices during the 1973 embargo, dialled slightly down so the supply-chain surcharge stacked on top of it does not push the city instantly out of solvency.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration — Retail gasoline historical prices

Supply chain surcharge

1.12

Multiplier applied to the food and clothing components of citizen cost-of-living during an oil_crisis. Captures the share of transportation/feedstock cost that filters through to consumer goods prices even for non-car-owners (trucks deliver groceries, plastics in clothing, refrigeration). Smaller than the direct fuel hit because retailers absorb part of the shock and not all of input cost passes through.

Source: BLS CPI — energy pass-through to food prices (1973-75 episode)

Sector revenue multipliers

Per-sector revenue multipliers during an oil_crisis. Applied as an outer multiplier alongside recession/tech-boom in the company revenue calculation. Sectors not in the table receive 1.0 (knowledge and services are largely insulated from a fuel shock). Calibration based on the relative fuel-intensity of each sector’s production function.

Source: Hamilton — Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08